Energy and Immigration
After a recent visit abroad, President Bush took time to thank those that had turned out to greet him overseas - particularly "those that used all five fingers to wave".
We're not very well liked by our unruly neighbors.
Much of the animosity directed our way from south of our border stems from their feeling that "we don't do enough" for them - in spite of our relatively open borders and "catch and release" policy towards those illegals we happen to stumble across.
They may dislike us, but they come because being at the bottom of our wage scale puts them on the top of their own. They will continue to come until there no longer is a reason to do so.
For generations and with few notable exceptions our neighbors to the south have struggled. Their tropical climate makes growing food crops a challenge and there are no widespread deposits of resources of interest to any potential trading partners.
Centuries ago, sugar cane was a very profitable export for the region - but not for the enslaved natives. Eventually, the sugar cane market collapsed with major improvements in the cultivation and refinement of the sugar beet. The sugar beet can be adapted to any climate while sugar cane requires a tropical climate.
At the confluence of dwindling petroleum supplies, skyrocketing demand for it and new technology brought to market by Brazil lies a land of opportunity that could change the balance of world power.
A Land of Opportunity
During the Arab Oil Embargo in the mid-70's, the Brazilian economy was growing at a rate of more than 10 percent - the fastest in the world at that time. The embargo brought oil shortages and price hikes, which hit at the same time that dropping world sugar prices where wreaking havoc on the Brazilian economy which relied upon sugar exports.
Determined to be more energy independent and searching for additional markets for sugar cane; the Brazilian government worked with scientists, entrepreneurs and farmers to create an industry producing ethanol from sugar cane.
Brazil now stands on the brink of energy independence (being able to meet all energy demand domestically) and is the global leader in ethanol production.
Unfortunately, Brazil has not found dominance of the world ethanol market to be a Rosetta stone solution to their economic challenges. Although their economy has grown phenomenally in the past few decades it has begun to stagnate and there is much pressure to get past the last few ethanol-related technological hurdles in which they lack internal expertise. The Brazilians are taking a very innovative approach.
A Capitalist Approach
Emerging economies such as China and India are starved for energy, but are reluctant to make long-term commitments to ethanol because it is not yet seen as a reliable source of energy given the relative small number of producers. In light of this obstacle, and putting faith in a basic tenet of capitalism that competition breeds innovation, Brazil is actively seeking global partners in ethanol production.
Specifically, Brazilian policy seeks to partner with their tropical neighbors by "facilitating technology transfer and technical assistance to other countries in the region to create new production capability and allow others to benefit from Brazilian know-how".
As partners, Brazil has helped Columbia, Costa Rica and El Salvador create ethanol industries that in a few short years have grown to the point where 5 percent of demand for gasoline has been met with domestically produced ethanol.
According to Luis Alberto Moreno, the former Brazilian Minister of Agriculture now President of the Inter-American Development Bank and Co-Chair of its Inter-American Ethanol Commission, ethanol is a "transformative opportunity for Latin America and the Caribbean". It has the potential to "change civilization" and already is "changing the way of life" of Brazilians.
The production of ethanol from sugar cane can revitalize the poorest regions of the world and create new sources of energy where, according to Moreno, "we grow in 6 months what we consume in 12."
Many obstacles to this transformation exist.
Education is an obstacle. Third world farmers grow what they're able to cultivate and sell. Tropical sugar cane farmers currently grow cane to produce sugar and end up competing against sugar beet farmers and lose due to transportation and refining costs. Millions of acres of sugar cane fields are moving to the cultivation of agave, from which tequila is made.
Corruption is an obstacle.
Unfortunately, Latin machismo does not extend to workers' attitudes to their governments. Illegal aliens work long, hard hours at low wages to send money home to their families where 30% is stolen by the local kleptocracy. One only need to watch old reruns of Zorro to understand this has been going on for quite some time.
American trade and energy policy is an obstacle.
At a recent conference of the Inter-American Development Bank, former Florida Governor (and First Brother) Jeb Bush derided current US energy policy as being nothing more than an agricultural policy. Bush currently serves as the Bank's Ethanol Commission co-chair along with former Brazilian Agriculture Minister Moreno mentioned above.
Bush refers to the fact that US energy policy features a subsidy of approximately $6 billion to producers of ethanol from corn. (See my previous column entitled Inconvenient Truths About Ethanol ) This subsidy includes a 54 cents per gallon tariff on imported ethanol in spite of the fact that corn is a very inefficient feedstock for ethanol production and use of it causes major upheavals in the US food supply.
Grassroots momentum that killed recent immigration legislation should now be directed towards a solution.
Every illegal immigrant being made to feel like the criminal they are should be made to understand that it is only their own weakness that prevents them from building a legitimate economy within their own country. Instead of sneaking across the border under cover of darkness to work for pennies while being subjected to the abuse they so richly deserve, they should demand justice in their own land and work to move from third world status.
Tariffs on imported ethanol should be abandoned. We benefit from prosperous and stable neighbors with which we trade, and people with jobs stay home. Latin American and Caribbean economies producing ethanol are producing a product in high demand and should be rewarded by the free market.
Subsidies to the ethanol-from-corn industry should be diverted to cellulosic ethanol technology. This is a technology from which American farmers will directly profit without endangering our food supply.
There is no challenge in being opposed to illegal immigration. The airwaves are filled with a cacophony of horror stories and outrages. For every wall and fence there is a ladder or tunnel.
It is time to speak of real solutions.